Last month, Jolly Redd made his big return in Animal Crossing: New Horizons, where he serves as the primary vendor for paintings and sculptures to be added to the museum’s collection.
As in other games in the series, Redd’s shady store sells fake paintings and sculptures alongside the genuine articles, making it that much harder for players to complete their art collections.
Recently, dataminer Ninji posted the odds at which players can expect to find real paintings in Redd’s trawler. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Redd’s much more likely to be peddling fakes than real art, and there’s even a chance he isn’t selling anything real at all:
late night #ACNH info dump thread here we go. here's the tea on Redd's ship— Ninji 🇪🇺🏴🇬🇮 (@_Ninji) May 20, 2020
it displays 6 items - four art pieces (slots 1-4) and two "rare" furniture items (slots 5-6). art can be as follows...
10% - 1 fake, 3 real
30% - 2 fake, 2 real
50% - 3 fake, 1 real
10% - 4 fake, 0 real
In addition to the base odds, Ninji also revealed that there is a bit of a “safety net” which reduces the chance Redd will be selling an art piece that the player has already donated to the musuem, although its not a surefire thing.
So, the other 80% of the time, the item you get may be new or it may be one you’ve already donated— Ninji 🇪🇺🏴🇬🇮 (@_Ninji) May 20, 2020
This makes it less likely that RNG will screw you over by giving you constant repeats when your museum is almost complete